Chris Hipkins’ role as Labour leader has taken a blow with the latest 1News Verian poll showing a 10% drop for him in the preferred prime minister stakes.
Hipkins has dropped from 25% in the last such poll before the election, down to 15% in today's results.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has remained steady on 25%.
It’s not all bad news for Labour however, with its party vote lifting very slightly from 27% - rounded up - on election night, to 28% in the poll.
ACT is the only party to see a drop - just 1% - from 9% at the election to 8% in the poll.
82 days into the coalition Government 100-day plan, the mood of the public is revealed. (Source: 1News)
Te Pāti Māori is the biggest winner in the poll, which was conducted from February 10 to 14, with a jump from 3% in the party vote at the election to 3.7% in the poll.
The party has not reached that level of support since March 2017. Its peak party vote poll result was 4.4% in June 2008.
The poll’s results suggest Labour would gain one seat if an election were held today, while ACT and New Zealand First would lose one seat each. With National’s seats remaining the same under the poll - 48 - it means the coalition government would still have a majority in the House of 65 seats instead of 67.
The so-called left bloc - Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori (which regularly rejects the label of ‘left’) would only have 56 seats under the poll’s numbers - not enough to form a government.
The poll’s results would also reduce the three-seat overhang in Parliament by two seats, making a parliament of 121 members.
Party vote, compared to the October 2023 election result
National – 38% (steady)
Labour – 28% (up 1%)
Green – 12% (steady)
ACT – 8% (down 1%)
New Zealand First – 6% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori – 3.7% (up 0.7%)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 1.9% (down 0.1%)
Seats in the House
(Calculation assumes Te Pāti Māori retains its electorates.)
National – 48
Labour – 35
Green – 15
ACT – 10
New Zealand First – 7
Te Pāti Māori – 6
Preferred prime minister
Up, down or steady is based on the final 1News Verian poll before the election, October 7-10.
Christopher Luxon – 25% (steady)
Chris Hipkins – 15% (down 10%)
Winston Peters – 6% (up 1%)
David Seymour – 4% (steady)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 4% (up 2%)
See the full poll results and methodology here
Between February 10 and 14 2024, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (498) and online, using online panels (504). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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